Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 8.515677 9.775094 11.132547 12.701474 14.461766 16.372675 18.600891
2026-01-25 6.628493 8.322637 10.291837 12.737785 15.681338 19.095835 23.341685
2026-02-01 5.680544 7.558943 9.850649 12.829626 16.574264 21.097931 26.945604
2026-02-08 4.877001 6.843931 9.351558 12.747053 17.183471 22.737187 30.162693
2026-02-15 4.250075 6.251897 8.904798 12.627118 17.655440 24.144658 33.072514
2026-02-22 3.807611 5.846858 8.645884 12.700714 18.343132 25.823072 36.374869
2026-03-01 3.524418 5.625879 8.602577 13.039140 19.376561 27.977924 40.379150
2026-03-08 3.127406 5.192156 8.211186 12.840619 19.627724 29.055690 42.942335
2026-03-15 2.696272 4.658585 7.621323 12.295753 19.328354 29.323915 44.358949
2026-03-22 2.539267 4.535697 7.631176 12.630992 20.313917 31.439249 48.460214
2026-03-29 2.377239 4.386678 7.584034 12.866954 21.151673 33.364210 52.352995
2026-04-05 2.164456 4.130847 7.344298 12.778654 21.479091 34.538035 55.176437
2026-04-12 1.959537 3.872145 7.084583 12.647689 21.743336 35.646512 57.981929
2026-04-19 1.800745 3.679116 6.917711 12.653783 22.219832 37.094098 61.357827
2026-04-26 1.675363 3.533102 6.816308 12.755599 22.845437 38.785279 65.157863
2026-05-03 1.532641 3.339554 6.615095 12.669816 23.150798 39.976557 68.214523
2026-05-10 1.399791 3.150836 6.405875 12.551771 23.387832 41.057620 71.124755
2026-05-17 1.306201 3.030137 6.309984 12.624545 23.946316 42.672288 74.938026
2026-05-24 1.254572 2.989807 6.359995 12.961342 24.973537 45.090723 80.135236
2026-05-31 1.141995 2.809864 6.129137 12.763811 25.047096 45.919163 82.743803
2026-06-07 1.001823 2.554748 5.730339 12.221840 24.471023 45.619216 83.452799
2026-06-14 0.967251 2.530238 5.788531 12.555301 25.495623 48.087099 88.895591
2026-06-21 0.924715 2.483164 5.796679 12.790021 26.346265 50.281096 93.940428